QBs:
- Kyle Trask, TB
- Kellen Mond, MIN
- Davis Mills, HOU
None of these quarterbacks are likely to see the field this season. I like Trask and think he has promise especially learning behind Tom Brady and with Bruce Arians, but I don't think Brady is going to be ready to retire for a couple years. Given how many hold-overs you have from year-to-year in dynasty, he should be an under-the-radar pickup in the 2022 Rookie draft or on waivers by the time he's actually valuable.
I also like Kellen Mond and wonder if this is the long-term plan for the Vikings after Cousins' contract runs its course at the end of next year. Despite the over-emphasis on coddling franchise quarterbacks in a market that is going to be increasingly going toward a shorter quarterback career lifecycle, I think taking good backup quarterbacks and raising them up is just smart planning. At worst, you have an asset to be move, at best you have a great value for your backup or future starter on a undervalued rate. Possible stash, but likely the same play as Trask.
Finally, while a lot of analysts like Mills as the sixth-best quarterback in this draft, he went third in this tier of quarterbacks taken. I doubt right now that Deshaun Watson is going anywhere (players really screwed any leverage they might have had in the last CBA), but this does help ensure the rebuilding process that this team is clearly in. He, right-now, would seem to have no dynasty value though.
RBs:
- Javonte Williams, DEN
- Trey Sermon, SF
Fit, fit, fit plus opportunity, opportunity, opportunity equals value for fantasy running backs. Need I remind you of Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Raheem Mostert, etc, etc, etc. Williams being taken by Denver after they already moved on from Phillip Lindsay also is questionable after they gave a big contract to MGIII last off-season, but, given how oft-injured Gordon is, Williams will end up being the #1 starter at some point in the season for Denver. The only downside seems to be yet that Drew Lock looks like he's going to be the starter, but there is a good upside possibility of Teddy Bridgewater here that helps at least make their position at quarterback at least average given how below average the Lock was for long stretches last season.
I also can't emphasize enough how opportunity and fit help for Trey Sermon as well. The Shanahan offenses are great for middle to late draft picks: Devonta Freeman, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, etc. not to even mention all the Shanahan assistants or the RBs under his dad. Sermon has talent as evidenced from the B10 championship through the CFB playoffs, but injuries is the biggest knock on him. The SF RB position is really valuable as it collectively was the 3rd best in fantasy last season. Depending on reports from training camp, Sermon could now very easily be a 1st round pick in August.
WRs:
- Elijah Moore, NYJ
- Rondale Moore, AZ
- D'Wayne Eskridge, SEA
- Tutu Atwell, LA
- Terrence Marshall, Jr, CAR
- Josh Palmer, LAC
- Amari Rodgers, GB
- Nico Collins, HOU
- Anthony Schwartz, CLE
There are so many WRs being selected this weekend that it's hard to have an opinion on every single one. Thus, I'm going to tell you the few that I don't see having much if any of an impact next season so we don't have to spend a ton of time on them: D'Wayne Eskridge and Anthony Schwartz won't see more than 40 targets next season. Let's move on.
Ok, now let's go to the guys who I see that could make flashes but are stash guys: Tutu Atwell, Josh Palmer, and Amari Rodgers. All three of these guys are going to teams with good set QBs (*we'll see how it plays out with Aaron Rodgers for GB I guess) and with multiple pass catchers ahead of them on the depth chart. While I can see Atwell being schemed a lot of opportunities down the road in McVay's offense, I think he's likely to have a quiet rookie year before he's ready to be used fully in 2022. Palmer has the clearest path to playing given the injury histories of a few of the guys in front of him namely Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but the team also liked and had a decent year from Jalen Guyton as well and I just don't know enough about Palmer's fit to have a gut feeling. Finally, Rodgers is likely to come in as a returner for Green Bay next year and fill the role Tyler Earvin and Tavon Austin played meaning he's more a decoy than a usable piece. Also, he's a slot receiver in an offense that actively uses more two than three WR sets. All of these guys are probably long-term stashes without much first-year start consideration.
As for the guys with actual first-year potential, some of this is talent and some of it is opportunity. Someone like Nico Collins wouldn't be on my radar at all if not that I barely know who else is going to potentially catching passes from Deshaun Watson next year. He's a guy with size (like Nuk) who apparently can be a big red-zone guy. If that's the case, he can potentially make a splash since the only recognizable pass catcher here is the oft-injured Brandin Cooks. Terrence Marshall played a lot of slot at LSU and was coached by current Carolina O-Coordinator Joe Brady there so you'd have to figure that he'll get a good amount of opportunities to do what he did in college right away for Carolina. Elijah Moore going to Jets probably means goodbye to Jamison Crowder as well since the Jets are going to have Mike LaFleur for O-Coordinator running the Shanahan type offense that rarely goes more than three-wide plus I don't see the Jets invest a high second round pick on a receiver their not intending to use right away. I also love what Rondale Moore can do in space. Because he is undersized, he has a bad injury history, but he is a gamebreaker in the Kingsbury four-wide scheme to get a ton of the underneath routes a screens. In my opinion, both of the Moore could get into the back end of the 2021 Dynasty 1st round, but all of these should go by the end of the second round.
TEs:
- Pat Friermuth, PIT
- Hunter Long, MIA
- Tommy Tremble, CAR
- Tre' McKitty, LAC
Let's start with the fact that Tremble and McKitty both didn't catch many passes in college, and I don't really see them doing so here. Hunter Long is the best prospect of these four, but Friermuth is in the better situation given how injury-prone Eric Ebron is. I don't think any of these is worth picking until at least the fourth round of your Dynasty Rookie draft, but Long and Friermuth need to be rostered by at least week 1 if only to hold on to their potential.
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